Updated map on chances of earthquakes

Find the map here: Map

Final post

A new job in the field of energy based on nano-materials is taking me back to the core of environmental sciences, but sadly outside the field of water related hazards (for the most part). That is why this will be the final post in this blog for the time being. Let's do our best to prepare for the days yet to come!

News in Japan - December

USA

Climate change will drive stronger, smaller storms in U.S., new modeling approach forecasts

Netherlands

Dutch coast ‘superstorm’ proof for the next 50 years The embankments that protect the marina have been topped with Xblocs to break high waves. Xbloc is an innovative concrete armour unit which has been developed by Dutch contractor BAM - under its trade name Delta Marine Consultants - for shore protection and breakwaters. Xblocs have a high hydraulic stability and requires considerably less concrete compared to other armouring systems and furthermore the units can be placed faster. This is the first time Xblocs have been used along the Dutch coast.

PhD-student experimented with 10.000 plastic river plants in waterlab, the Netherlands In the main channel of the waterlab at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, PhD-student Andrés Vargas-Luna simulated the shaping of rivers including the effects of vegetation. He did this by putting 10.000 small plastic plants in the channel. "Problems arise when trying to calculate their extension as there are no models for this. It is often assumed that the land that erodes from one bank, expands the other. I want to know which role vegetation plays in the development of riverbanks.” The outcomes of his research emphasize the relevance of considering the effects of vegetation on the river management and on the designing, planning and maintaining of restoration projects.

Other

UK Winter 2015/2016 floods: One of the century's most extreme and severe flood episodes

Most UK coastal flooding caused by moderate, not extreme storms The researchers also identified four main storm track pathways approaching the UK (mainly from the westerly and northerly directions) and four broad corresponding footprints of extreme sea level events (four sections, which together, make up most of Britain's mainland coastline). Clustering of storms, such as happened during the 2013 -- 14, or even 2015 -- 16 season, is an important issue. It can lead to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative insurance losses. Before now, knowledge of this area has been limited, but our study will help better inform flood management, the insurance sector, and national emergency and infrastructure resilience planning to minimise the impact of successive storm events. The team has also developed a new database of coastal flooding for the UK called 'SurgeWatch' (http://www.surgewatch.org) which contains records, including photographs, of coastal flooding events over the last 100 years.

New 3D world map – TanDEM-X global elevation model completed

Joso flood - ICHARM publication

My colleagues have just published an article in the Journal of Disaster Research, titled "The 2015 Flood Impact due to the Overflow and Dike Breach of Kinu River in Joso City, Japan" (doi: 10.20965/jdr.2016.p1112). You can access the full article for free by registering on the website for free as a member. This article discusses not only the geographic features making the area prone to flooding, but also the lead time to evacuation per district.

Abstract:
Heavy rainfall in September 2015 inundated the Kinu River basin and caused an overflow and dike breach of the river in the eastern part of Joso City, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan. The area, which is bounded by the Kinu and Kokai Rivers, experienced deep inundation of more than 2.5 m, which continued for more than 3 days at the maximum level. Although the estimated maximum inundation depth and duration were basically related to the elevation and distribution of topographic surfaces, strong flood flow washed buildings away near the overflow and dike breach sites and caused deep inundation even though these sites were located on a relatively higher natural levee. In addition, serious damages such as interruption of emergency transportation routes and deep inundation over floor level occurred, isolating evacuation centers and important facilities including a municipal hall and hospitals. Few residents utilized the pre-prepared flood hazard map or understood the local geography, and evacuation orders were not fully transmitted to the local residents, which might have increased the flood’s impact.

News in Japan - November

USA:
Mississippi River could leave farmland stranded

If the Mississippi River continues to go unchecked, the farmland on Dogtooth Bend peninsula may be only accessible by boat. According to a University of Illinois study, each successive flood carves a deeper channel across the narrow neck of the peninsula. This floodwater shortcut threatens to permanently reroute the Mississippi River, leaving Dogtooth Bend an island rather than a peninsula. Repeatedly repairing the levee breaches, building a bridge over the shortcut created by the flooding, or letting the Mississippi chart its own course are some solutions to the problem.

Netherlands: 

New Dutch drama, ‘if the levees breach’: http://www.npo.nl/series/artikelen/als-de-dijken-breken

Grand scale evacuations at Marken during 'crisis practice Waterwolf' (Dutch)

Website visualizing floods in the Netherlands: http://www.overstroomik.nl/

Cadzand-Beach most closely resembles Omaha Beach (Dutch) For the first time enormous Xblocs, an innovation of construction consortium BAM, are applied in the Netherlands. They must protect the hinterland from so-called super storms that may arise from a combination of sea level rise and climate change. The probability of such a super storm is 1 percent in a hundred years. That seems low, but without proper protection the flood damages can amount to more than one hundred billion euro. The three-dimensional shapes can be linked to each other similar to Lego-blocks, so that the connection of the resulting dam becomes extra strong. But by the openness persisting between the Xblocs, the barrier absorbs the enormous power of the super waves instead of being averted. The slender palisades also reduces the required material. A ‘small’ Xbloc consists of 1.5 cubic meters of concrete, a large one of 4 cubic meters. That is only one-third of the material which would be required for massive concrete blocks of the same size. "The gaps between the Xblocs creates space for all kinds of marine life. Small micro-organisms can settle here, but also fish and crabs find shelter. We considered mixing the concrete with shell grit, so that a large surface would be created with better adherence, but that was really too expensive." Research at Rijkswaterstaat in 2003 showed that the force with which the waves hit the shore is greater than previously thought. At nine locations along the Dutch coast dunes or dikes had to be reinforced to be able to withstand a superstorm. When Minister Schultz van Haegen (Infrastructure and Environment) formally closed the work in Cadzand today, all the weak links will have been restored.

Minor earthquake and tsunami

This morning we were awoken by an earthquake of magnitude 7.3, shindou 5- off the coast of Fukushima with some small aftershocks. Our phones immediately gave off tsunami warnings (1-3 meter). Several coastal towns have received evacuation warnings.

This map shows the locations and heights of tsunami waves in cm measured according to the JMA:

News in Japan - October

USA

Sandy's surge topped by 'rogue' 1950 storm in some areas

Colorado River Delta flows help birds, plants, groundwater

Other

Watersheds Lost Up to 22% of Their Forests in 14 Years. Here’s How it Affects Your Water Supply High erosion deteriorates water quality and reduces reservoir capacity, increasing the cost of water treatment and the risk of contamination. High erosion risk is usually linked to erodible soil, intense rainfall, steep topography and conversion of forest and other natural lands to pasture, cropland and more.

How fast will we need to adapt to climate change? Using sea-level rise as a case study, researchers at Carnegie's Department of Global Ecology have developed a quantitative model that considers different rates of sea-level rise, in addition to economic factors, and shows how consideration of rates of change affect optimal adaptation strategies. If the sea level will rise slowly, it could still make sense to build near the shoreline, but if the sea level is going to rise quickly, then a buffer zone along the shoreline might make more sense. "It is a very different thing to adapt to a sea level that is three feet higher if you think that sea level will rise no farther after that, than to adapt to a sea-level rise that is three feet higher with the expectation that the seas will keep rising," remarked Soheil Shayegh, a former Carnegie postdoc and lead author of the study.

Reservoirs play substantial role in global warming The world's reservoirs are an underappreciated source of greenhouse gases, producing the equivalent of roughly 1 gigaton of carbon dioxide a year, or 1.3 percent of all greenhouse gases produced by humans.

Evaluating forecasting models for predicting rainfall from tropical cyclones more than 50 percent of the deaths associated with hurricanes from 1970 to 2004 were caused by fresh water flooding. And from 1981 to 2011, hurricane damage accounted for almost half -- $417.9 billion -- of the total monetary damage from all weather and climate disasters during that same time period (adjusted for inflation to 2011 dollars). Current models can forecast both where and how much rainfall a tropical cyclone will produce up to two days in advance. However, the forecast's accuracy decreased significantly when the prediction window increased to five days.

Hurricane Matthew is just the latest unnatural disaster to strike Haiti At least 1,000 people were killed when Hurricane Matthew battered the Tiburon peninsula in Haiti last week, destroying houses and displacing tens of thousands. Other experts describe disasters as “manifestations of unresolved development problems”. Therefore, disasters are not a natural phenomenon. Humans play a central role. As a result, a natural hazard such as Hurricane Matthew impacts each country in its path differently. We know that development, imposed by external forces that exploit the local labour force is not in the interest of the marginalised. A failure to respect human rights, local needs, the environment and human-environment relations simply creates disaster risk.

Scientists find link between tropical storms and decline of river deltas Lead researcher Professor Stephen Darby of the University of Southampton said: “Our study is the first to show the significant role tropical storms play in delivering sediment to large river deltas.  We show that although human impacts affect the amount of sediment in a river – cyclonic activity is also a very important contributing factor. These results are very significant because the Mekong’s sediment load is already declining as a result of upstream damming and other human impacts such as sand mining. Understanding the role played by changes in tropical cyclone climatology gives us a broader knowledge of the threats facing this delta and others like it around the world.” 

Greenland may be losing ice even faster than we thought

Receding glaciers in Bolivia leave communities at risk  A new study published in The Cryosphere, an European Geosciences Union journal, has found that Bolivian glaciers shrunk by 43% between 1986 and 2014, and will continue to diminish if temperatures in the region continue to increase. "On top of that, glacier recession is leaving lakes that could burst and wash away villages or infrastructure downstream," says lead-author Simon Cook, a lecturer at the Manchester Metropolitan University in the UK.