World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai - day 3
In the middle of this conference I was able to visit 5 events on this day. The first was a technical session on the methods used in the Global Assessment Report 2015 at Tohoku university. The second and third took place at the International Center and covered financial aspects of disaster risk reduction. Another session there covered land use planning, while the last, at Tohoku university, was a very special session about the formation of a Delta Alliance, initiated by the Dutch government and attended by one of the Dutch princesses.
GAR15 Global Risk Assessment
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Schedule
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2015-03-16
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09:15-12:00
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Venue
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Venue: Tohoku University Room N°: B103
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Organizer
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UNISDR
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Moderator,
Panelist, Speaker, etc.
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Objective
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This session will examine the causes of risk
creation and accumulation, and particularly what must be done to more
effectively address the underlying drivers of risk so as to combat rising
economic losses and mortality. In so doing the impediments to implementing
Priority Action 4 of the HFA will be examined. Such an analysis will help to
determine what needs to go into national strategies, plans, and business
models to reverse the intensification of exposure and vulnerability.
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Contents
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Technical explanations of the GAR components.
Løvholt: >80% of tsunamis caused by earthquakes
Cardona: Loss assessment, probable density
function, loss exceedance curve, CAPRA, probable maximum loss, average annual
loss. Scale is country, not pixel (1km/5km). Global exposure database is 5x5
km and 1x1 km at coast line.
DRDI disaster risk development implications
index (economic – stocks/ savings; growth/financial-GFCF/reserves;
social-social expenditure).
Q&A: This is a model, have you verified
with reality how much is the difference? We are within 1 order of magnitude,
we are starting the process, but we need more data on national/local levels.
How about recovery times, business/lifelines
interruptions? This model is useful for banks, funding, and national level.
Not for city mayors/local levels. We should also invite the scientific community,
not just governments. Holistic approach, include indicators that reflect
social issues.
Sparks: 2 background papers for GAR:
non-technical paper, summary and profile of all countries with volcanoes; 1
technical paper with 25 case studies and volcanic ash hazards. There are
roughly 40 eruptions every year, 800 million people live in 100km of active
volcanoes. 1 mm of ash can disrupt agriculture and airports.
Saito: Online platform showing hazard, not
risk, to non-technical people.
De Grove: INFORM project includes GAR for
natural hazards and HFA for vulnerable groups, institutional governance for
lack of coping capacity. HELP page -> disaster risk and age index
Serje: Risk prevention.web website is an open
data set, downloadable and Linux based.
Mochizuki: CATSIM input: country’s fiscal
resources for reconstruction, is a global fund for building back better
possible? The annual costs in USD are < 5-24 billion for 10-500 year
events.
Earthquake Q&A: The model shows only
direct losses, not governmental total costs going beyond infrastructure to
production and restoration of power and services. Resolution of model is 90m,
which is course for tsunamis but fine for the GAR. Data sources are open
source models, e.g. NOAA.
Flood Q&A: Methods used include: statistical
analysis, meteorological input, hydrologic modeling, hazard mapping,
quantiles computation, improved regression for estimating ungauged sites, per
pixel bias correction, multi-objective validation. GFT has a 90m Digital
Elevation Model resolution, allowing for braiding in large floodplains. Flood
defenses are a function of GDP. A comparison with national/regional models is
starting, preliminary results will be available in May. Only the global
rivers are modelled, not irrigated/managed floodplains.
Other hazards Q&A: Data is stored in a
.AME format. Hazards must be represented as a set of stochastic events. Can
people/ages also be stored in this manner? Cyclones were modeled with strong
winds (3 sec. winds) and storm surges (run up height). IBTrACS and NOAA
databases were used, 2594 historical cyclones used as input. SEDAC was used
for socio/economic data. Historical tracks were combined with 100 child
tracks by artificially disturbing the track with the bi-dimensional Wiener
process. The TCHM model was used for this. Landscan population distribution
was added in 1km squares. We separated urban from rural areas, population by
income level, and building types.
Q&A: If you model future hazards, do you
include future population projections too? Very popular question, it is
difficult to model how vulnerable people will be in the future, or how to
model exposure based on future infrastructure. How can we compare countries?
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Disaster Risk in the Financial System
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Schedule
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2015-03-16
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12:00-13:30
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Venue
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Venue: Sendai International
Centre Room N°: Main
Hall
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Organizer
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WCDRR
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Moderator,
Panelist, Speaker, etc.
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Moderator
Mr. Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Research Officer of Science and Technology
Research, Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
Keynote
Mr. Dominic Casserley, Chief Executive Officer, Willis Group Holdings plc
Panel
Mr. Gil Buenaventura, President and CEO of the Development Bank of the
Philippines
Mr. George Brady, Deputy Secretary-General, International Association of
Insurance Supervisors
Mr. Gordon McBean, President, International Council for Science (ICSU)
Mr. Shaun Tarbuck, Chief Executive, International Cooperative and Mutual
Insurance Federation
Mr. Takejiro Sueyoshi,
Special Advisor, UNEP Finance Initiative, Japan
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Contents
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Sueyoshi: Fiduciary duty: to act solely for
another’s interest
Systemic environmental risks are a blind spot
of bank supervisors.
It would be too time consuming to make new
regulations, let’s renew the existing regulations.
Tarbuck: Insurance is 7% of the world’s funds.
Long term goal is to institute global change. Planet smart investments.
Resilience bonds. Insurance plays a social role. 12/17 new SDGs have an
insurance element.
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Economic Aspects of Disaster
Risk Reduction
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Schedule
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2015-03-16
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14:00-15:30
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Venue
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Main Hall, Sendai International Conference Centre
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Organizer
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UNISDR
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Moderator,
Panelist, Speaker, etc.
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Moderator
Ms. Samantha Chard, Assistant Secretary, Emergency Management Policy
Branch, Attorney-General's Department, Australia
Speakers
Mr. Oscar Velo Trevino, Director, Unit of Pensions and Insurance and
Social Security, Credit and Insurance Secretariat, Mexico
Mr. Kiyochi Kodera, Vice-President, Japan International Cooperation
Agency (JICA), Japan
Mr. Arsenio Balisacan, Director General, National Economic and
Development
Authority (NEDA), Philippines
Mr. Stephane Jacobzone, Counsellor, Public Governance and Territorial
Development, OECD
Mr. Reinhard Mechler, Deputy Program Director, Risk Policy and
Vulnerability
Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Mr. Stephane Hallogate, Senior Economist, World Bank
Didier Dogley, Min.
Environmental Engineering and climate change
Milton Henriquez, Min.
Governance, Panama
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Objective
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To share the importance of economic aspects of
disaster risk reduction, especially utilizing economic analysis and risk
information to support decision making in public investment and financing
strategies.
To share examples and best practices, identify
further challenges, and suggest direction to implement a post-2015 framework
for disaster risk reduction.
To support emerging regional networks of Ministries
of finance on disaster risk reduction and discuss how organizations with
technical expertise can support such networks.
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Contents
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Kodera: 87% of donor funds goes to response
(expost instead of exante) and recovery. Ministry of finance and planning
should be targeted to reallocate investments. “Disasters are unpredictable,
disasters only cost money rather than investments”, arguments against
investing in prevention/preparation. “Japan is a rich country, therefore it
can invest” – actually 5-8% of GDP was invested since 1962. JICA last month:
inclusive and resilient growth.
Hallogate: In house/crops are at risk of e.g.
floods, you invest less. If risk in 1 domain is very high, other domains also
became areas where people don’t want to take risks. Poor have less
information and financial instruments, social protection.
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Land Use Planning for
Disaster Risk Reduction
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Schedule
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2015-03-16
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16:00-17:30
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Venue
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Hagi Hall, Sendai
International Conference Centre
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Organizer
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Member States
·
Government of Colombia, National Unit of Disaster Risk Management
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Representative of an African State (tbc)
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Members of the SRSG’s Urban Planning Advisory Group:
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Barbara Lipietz, University College London, UK
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Richard Sliuzas, University of Twente, Netherlands
Jorgelina Hardoy, Instituto Internacional de Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo
de América Latina, Argentina
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Moderator,
Panelist, Speaker, etc.
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Moderator
Mr. Carlos-Ivan Marquez, Director of the National Disaster Risk
Management Unit of the Presidency of the Republic, Colombia
Speakers
Ms. Dieynaba Sidibe, President of the Board of Women Pastoralists/herders
of
Senegal
Ms. Shipra Narang Suri, Vice-President of Technical Cooperation,
International
Society of City and Regional Planners (ISOCARP)
Mr. Mathijs van Ledden, Director Business Development Flood Risk
Reduction at Royal Haskoning (DHV), The Netherlands
Ms. Selaima Maitoga, Acting
Chief Executive Officer, Lami Town Council, Fiji
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Objective
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1.
Present good practices and challenges surrounding the incorporation of
risk reduction in existing land-use planning and management practices at the
local level.
2.
Make practical recommendations on how to ensure that local governments
have access to the information, tools and capacities necessary to develop and
implement risk-sensitive land-use planning.
3.
Reframe land-use planning towards a more transformative notion of
planning that puts the development of risk-sensitive, resilient and
sustainable cities and communities at its core.
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Contents
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Hypothecial city with river problem and land
mines in floodplains.
Ledden: What should be done, by whom, who
pays? Many development decisions being taken without thinking about water.
Long term vision: cooperate between municipalities, risk based decision
making. All time scale measures (short-medium-long) start at the same time.
Short: EWS together with private sector, protecting critical sectors. Mid: 1
million people city, river front development of housing with view combined
with better protection, hydropower, retain water upstream. Long:
deforestation should be replanted, urban settlements rezoned, how much room
does the river need (climate change). Institutional: Form a water authority
with private sectors. -> No
solution for the land mines.
Suri: Check vulnerable groups in the long
term, what worked best in the last plan? Business both heavy loss so deserves
attention. Collecting information from local multi-actor stakeholders,
retrofit buildings, identify no-build zones e.g. landmines or pastoralists
and prevent illegal constructions. Land stabilization, improve land use,
zoning and building code revision + are they implementable? Protect key
buildings & lifelines, public/open spaces. Medium: livelihood
information, review planning, integrate DRR in these, review ecological
assets of region. How can economy be kick started, should they be relocated?
What is their contribution to pollution? Regional; integrated plan is needed.
Long term simplified approval processes and enforcement. Set up collated GIS
and exchange within municipality departments. Not by planners alone, but
multiple stakeholders. Ensure compliance.
Q&A: No build zone implementation was very
difficult after typhoon Haiyan. Faith/ancestors may be a reason for people to
live somewhere. In democratic countries people have to be made aware and own
the measures to be done. Otherwise you cannot enforce it. Relocations should
be a final measure, or temporary in nature.
Suri: It is not possible to plan without the
people who will live in those areas.
Ledden: Dutch legislation Watertoets for every
new large development to show the water management system is not harmed or is
compensated, e.g. pavement -> water storage elsewhere.
All refugees together = 26th most
populous country in the world.
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“Building an international coalition for
integrated delta
management
and resilience”
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Schedule
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2015-03-16
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18:00-20:00
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Venue
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Venue:
B103, Kawauchi-Kita
Campus, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
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Organizer
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The Netherlands, Japan, and Colombia
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Number of participants
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Princess Margriet of the Netherlands joined the audience of about 100
people; 1/3 belonging to various government organizations, 1/5 NGOs, 1/5
knowledge institutes such as ICHARM, and some from the private sector and
other organizations.
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Moderator,
Panelist, Speaker, etc.
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Words
of Welcome: Ms. Lilianne Ploumen, Minister of Foreign Trade and
Development
Cooperation of the Netherlands
Mr.
Kenichiro Ueno, Parliamentary Vice-Minister of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport
and Tourism of Japan
Mr.
Carlos Ivan Marquez Perez, General Director of the National Unit for
Disaster
Management of Colombia
Ms. Lilianne Ploumen
(Presentation of the Delta Coalition)
Moderator: Ms. Jane Madgwick, CEO, Wetlands
International
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Objective
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This event was organized by
the Netherlands, Japan, and Colombia to establish the goals of a new
initiative tentatively called the Delta Coalition, which aims to be a
multi-stakeholder partnership supporting the implementation of the UN
disaster frameworks related to deltas and their waters.
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Contents
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Lilianne Ploumen (the Minister of Foreign Trade and Development
Cooperation of the Netherlands) opened with her idea to combine government,
civil society and the private sector in this alliance in order to further
scientific exchange, deliver a joint political message, and bring communities
together.
Kenichiro Uneo (the Parliamentary Vice-Minister of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism of Japan) added his wish to share knowledge as a common
global asset and jointly communicate the message of Disaster Risk Reduction.
He said that Japan is devoted to help and share technology and knowledge,
which can contribute to DDR in delta countries and sustainable development.
Carlos Ivan Marquez Perez (the General Director of the National Unit for
Disaster Management of Colombia) explained how the effects of El Nino and La
Nina would be exacerbated by climate change, which could be devastating to
the harbors and coral reefs along the 3000km of coast along both the Pacific
and Atlantic oceans. He stressed that disaster risk should be a special theme
of the government as it is part of development, and deltas are particularly
vulnerable to climate change.
For current developments, ICHARM’s Imamura-san presented several best
practices examples of water management in Japan. Representatives of Aqueduct
showcased their Global Flood Analyzer. This free online software with
downloadable shape files has different scales (country, river basin, state)
visualizing variable levels of protection and flood occurrence. I think this
software is a good start, but needs to increase its accuracy, as it uses very
few indicators and oversimplifies the resulting affected areas (see more at
the world resources institute website wri.org). 15 countries have 80% of
exposed people.
The moderator, Jane Madgwick (CEO of Wetlands International), then
invited audience input regarding what the added value and focus of the delta
coalition could be. From developing countries, a Philippines government
official said how their country has 4-5 months of monsoon every year and
“just throws them away” as no one can do anything on account of the floods.
They welcome a coalition and sharing of knowledge and costs of disaster
resilient development. A Vietnamese government official agreed to this and added
they would like to learn what failed
in other countries.
The chair of the Global Water Partnership expressed the need for the
delta alliance to find the gaps it could fill and suggested water security as
focus. In relation to this, I proposed to further strengthen water as a human
right through implementation in the alliance.
As reality is often very different from collaboration on paper, the
alliance could enhance the political options for transboundary data sharing,
a member of a Korean technological institute suggested. ICHARM’s Sawano-san
added the need to clarify what data and technology is required as well as how
to correlate it.
Mathijs van Rellen (from the Dutch engineering company Royal Haskoning
DHV) welcomed the benefits private companies could have from governmental
backing of their engineering solutions in developing countries, but was also
eager to learn from solutions developing countries implement.
Others interested in joining the alliance included the Japanese MLIT, the
Dutch research institute Deltares, the French minister of ecology, an Indian
NGO, and the IFRC. Minister Ploumen was happy to see many countries
interested in the added value of a delta alliance. She summarized the future
goals of the alliance as: organizing a science-policy interface, bringing
data together, implementing existing goals and finding the knowledge gaps.
Concrete actions include creating a voice of deltas at the global level,
managing data and knowledge-exchange, and promoting water security and water
as a human right in delta areas.
Finally, Jane welcomed everyone to join the next meeting at the World
Water Forum in Korea from 12-17 April, and hinted there might be a prize for
those who come up with a more spectacular name for the Delta Coalition.
ICHARM can surely contribute to and benefit from this collaboration in great
amounts, so let us join in designing a new name for the delta alliance.
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