Symposium "Policy studies on huge disasters"

Hosted at GRIPS, this symposium featured two keynote speeches by experts and a panel discussion with the following members:

• Mr. Tetsuro Ito (Guest Professor, The University of Tokyo, Former Chief Cabinet Secretary for Crisis Management)
• Mr. Takahito Iwata  (Director of Emergency Management Department, Shizuoka Prefectural Government)
• Mr. Hajime Kagiya   (General Manager of Secretariat to the Assembly, Itabashi Ward Tokyo, Lecturer of Hosei University)
• Prof. Keiko Tamura (Professor, Risk Management Office at Niigata University, Former member of Central Disaster Prevention Council)
• Prof. Haruo Hayashi (Keynote speech 1 “Huge disasters and Improvement of resilience”)(Professor and Director, Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems, Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University)
• Prof. Naoshi Hirata (Keynote speech 2 “Generating mechanism of the huge earthquake disasters”) (Professor and Director, Earthquake Prediction Research Center at The University of Tokyo)

While the speeches were mainly technical and focused on the GEJET 2011 and predictions of similar future events in other areas of Japan, the panel discussion allowed for a small widening of topics, most importantly because it was possible to hand in questions to the panel members. There were simultaneous English-Japanese translations, so the following information may contain translation errors.

During the speeches the current predictions of a magnitude 8-9 earthquake in the Nankai trough (South East Japan) in the coming 30 years has 60-70% chance of occurring and showed over 300,000 deaths and a 30m tsunami in Shikoku. It is expected to cost 420 billion yen to reduce the estimated victims.

Tokyo still has a high probability of a magnitude 7+ earthquake. Here the main cause of death in projections is estimated to occur by electrical fires (70% of all projected deaths), meaning policies are focusing on how to stimulate private house owners to improve their houses as the government taxes are not sufficient to pay for all individual improvements. The fires are predicted to last 2 days as firefighters won't be able to reach all locations and electricity is thought to be out for one week. No police or ambulance can travel on the road for about a month due to obstructions. The Tokyo population is still increasing, not to births which are actually less than the amount of deaths, but due to immigration.

Equally interesting was the predictions of a magnitude 7-8 earthquake in Hokkaido and more northern island, which are Russian. Here it was mentioned that for some disputed islands, it is legally unclear who is responsible to save the inhabitants, though of course the Japanese government would make any effort to save those in need of rescue regardless of nationality.

During the panel discussion several topics were brushed. Mr. Iwata explained about Shizuoka, which already has many communities of 25% older adults where communities may lose their functions and become isolated during a disaster due to the mountainous area and easily blocked roads. It may even be that the area cannot receive relief. Should the communities aim at being fully self-resilient or be interdependent?

Residents who refused to evacuate when ordered to do so during the GEJET came in two categories, as explained by Prof. Tamura. The first wanted to claim damages, thought they understood the water level, and didn't acknowledge the tsunami. This could be addressed with by more education and adaptability. The second just couldn't pull themselves away from daily life, due to e.g. medication. This also requires more education during the normal routine, think about how you can be comfortable evacuating, and by keeping precious belonging nearby and ready to take with you.

Prof. Hirata commented on the possible eruption of mount Fuji, which was met with laughter. He said explosions are never sudden, there are several predicting phenomenon observed before eruptions. Some of those signs can be detected, and there are none right now. The magazine and press reports are without substance. During a magnitude 5 earthquake there were volcanic eruptions, so there will be a slightly higher chance for Fuji to erupt during a magnitude 9 earthquake. It could occur in the coming 50 years, a hazard map is available.
Mr. Iwata added that there is an evacuation plan coordinated between 3 prefectures which will be rehearsed next month and focuses on pyroclastic flow. One difficultly for the Nankai trough earthquake is that several eruptions are expected, roads will be damaged, and a small flow will already result in 200,000 evacuees, which is very difficult to manage.

Mr. Ito commented on local disaster drills. Always the same people visit the drills, but they would like to train specifically young mothers and students. There are not enough people to organize workshops on the community level. He also said that having a nice plan with pictures does not mean implementation is easy. For individuals, he recommends to make a disaster plan beforehand with your family based on the assumption that you are still alive and the shelters work. You should have water and food, and be fully prepared to protect yourself.

Mr. Ito also mentioned the relocation of (governmental functions of) Tokyo, which has been discussed many times and abandoned for various reasons. Can the ministries in Kasumigaseki survive? How can this, and the stock exchange, be maintained? Do the backup offices function? These questions remained unanswered.

All in all it was a highly educational discussion with comments from experts in all policy levels as well as from various parts of the country, each adding their valuable experiences.