Friday, June 20, 2014

Study limitations

There are three limitations to the methods I used to estimate the number of vulnerable people:

1) People tend to have multiple characteristics simultaneously/ characteristics may change over time

If the numbers of vulnerable people are combined, even though the real number of vulnerable people is not so many, the vulnerability would be increased depending on how many characteristics they have. This means that I have counted some people multiple times, depending on their characteristics. For instance, there are the indicators ‘people with disabilities and no car access’, and ‘older adults over 65 years old and having multiple disabilities’ which have overlap.


This can only be prevented in future research by collecting data on a more regional scale, which is now being introduced in Japan (Action Policies for Supporting Evacuation Activities of Persons Needing Assistance During Forced Evacuations (2013)). The municipalities are mandated to collect data on individual people needing evacuation assistance. My study shows the limitations of the currently available data and the necessity of collecting more data on an individual level.


2) Vulnerability is assumed as binary rather than a continuous variable

If a person has any characteristic, they are equally vulnerable to any other person with any other characteristic. For instance, a person in a wheelchair is equally vulnerable to a person without car access. This may seem unfair. It may be possible to apply weights or gradients, but these are subjective and depend on the culture or even on an individual level;  therefore I chose to work with unbiased numbers.



3) The characteristic ‘restricted by commitments’ – are people vulnerable?

If people are only restricted by commitments, they themselves do not have any characteristic that makes them intrinsically vulnerable. However, these people choose not to evacuate themselves immediately, because of sense of duty, relationship to a dependent, or to protect valuable assets. As they don't evacuate themselves immediately and remain in the exposed area, they become vulnerable to the disaster risk.

Pictures by Daniel Vrielink (2014).

Saturday, June 14, 2014

Exposure versus vulnerability

The focus of my thesis lies on measures for vulnerable people in exposed areas. I adopted the UNISDR (2009) definition of vulnerability, which distinguishes vulnerability from exposure. While part (or even all) of a given area (e.g., country, region, river basin, or community) can be exposed to a hazard, the population can be seen as consisting of vulnerable people and self-reliant people. Different parts of an area can be exposed to different types of hazard, and people can be vulnerable to different hazards. While part (or even all) of a given area (e.g., country, region, river basin, or community) can be exposed to a certain hazard, the population can be seen as consisting of vulnerable people and self-reliant people with regards to a certain hazard. 


The figure shows an area with vulnerable and self-reliant people. Whereas all the people in the floodplain may be exposed to floods, the self-reliant people are able to save themselves. They have the necessary physical and mental capacity, information and resources to save themselves, and are not restricted by commitments to e.g. family members, duty, possessions or place. Vulnerable people in the floodplain however have one or more of these characteristics and cannot immediately evacuate themselves out of the area. 

Figure created by Daniël Vrielink (2014). 

Saturday, June 7, 2014

Elevation and population density 1900/1950 - 2010 maps

For my thesis I included several figures showing the elevation and population density over time from the countries the Netherlands, Japan and the United States. It may come as no surprise that the images show most urbanization over the past 60 or 110 years has taken place in the floodplains. 

Map of the Topography and Population Density of the Netherlands (1900, 2010) in people per square kilometer. (Adapted from the Actueel Hoogtebestand Nederland, 2014; Nieuwe Rotterdamsche Courant, 2014; Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, 2010).
Map of the Topography and Population Density of Japan (1950, 2010) in people per square kilometer. (Adapted from the Generic Mapping Tools, 2013a; Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication (MIC), 2011; Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC), 2014).

Map of the Topography and Population Density of the continental United States (1900, 2010) in people per square kilometer. (Adapted from the Generic Mapping Tools, 2013b; United States Census Bureau, 2013a; United States Census Bureau, 2013b).

Images adapted by Daniël Vrielink (2014).

Full references:
Netherlands
Japan
United States