In response to the news that only 56% of all evacuation shelters in Japan are earthquake proof, I asked the Tsukuba city hall which evacuation centers in Tsukuba were earthquake proof. I was sent an abundance of information, mainly in Japanese. The website provides among others an overview of each shelter (school) and the earthquake proof status.
They further explained:
Mainly primary and junior high schools are designated as the evacuation shelters.
The designated 16 primary schools, 15 junior schools, 16 kindergartens, the day care centers, the children’s halls and the social welfare centers are all checked for earthquake resistance. Some of the buildings which were not strong enough for earthquakes have been already strengthened or scheduled to be strengthened by the 2015 fiscal year. Please note that the schools as evacuation centers are controlled and maintained by each school.
So in 1.5 years at least in Tsukuba all the shelters will be compliant to the standards of earthquake proof buildings. I asked the assistance of a Japanese co-worker in translating the information and finding an actual 100% earthquake proof shelter (if such a thing is possible), near my house, so we wouldn't end up going to a not-or less earthquake proof shelter. The ensuing conversation proves I am in Japan.
Co-worker: "You know, the earthquake may not happen for a long time."
Me: "Or it could happen today. It is the 'statistical reality'."
Co-worker, after a dramatic silence: "...I have lived long enough..."
(At this point I'm disturbing other people as I cry out what a horrible thing it is to say...)
Let's not forget the
news from 1.5 years ago: "The earthquake research institute at Tokyo University said that in the worst case, a quake of magnitude 7 would hit the southern part of metropolitan Tokyo by 2016, while the chances of a similar disaster occurring within 30 years are as high as 98%. The government, by contrast, estimates the possibility of an earthquake that size striking the capital at 70% in the next three decades."
I'm still trying to find out any scientific arguments why the government prefers to have a 30% chance of no earthquake over 2%.
Original news article from the Yomiuri Shimbun, October 11 2013:
Only about half of the designated evacuation sites in 44 prefectures are quake-resistant, according to a survey conducted by the Board of Audit. Out of the 90,262 shelters designated by 1,615 municipalities, 50,964, or 56.5 percent, could adequately withstand earthquakes, the board said Wednesday. The survey did not cover Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures.
The survey has brought to the fore questions regarding the resistance of evacuation centers, as about 44 percent of them are not well prepared for secondary damage caused by aftershocks. Yet many people are expected to stay at such shelters if there is a massive quake, such as a Nankai Trough earthquake or a quake directly under the metropolitan area. Public facilities such as school buildings and community centers are designated as evacuation centers based on a regional disaster prevention plan mapped out by each municipal government.
The board, which received a request from the Diet to inspect the antiquake measures implemented at such shelters, conducted an oral survey of the local governments. The rate of earthquake-proofed school buildings has increased to 85.5 percent. The Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Ministry aims to complete reinforcing the school buildings against earthquakes by fiscal 2015.
However, reinforcement against seismic activities at other evacuation shelters such as community centers and assembly halls has not made much progress. In this area, the quake-proofing rate remained at less than 60 percent. By municipalities, 73.8 percent of shelters in ordinance-designated cities, 57.5 percent in other cities and wards and 49.3 percent in towns and villages are resistant to seismic shocks. The results show that towns and villages are far behind in taking measures compared to urban districts.
Meanwhile, among 1,615 municipalities, only 37.2 percent, or 600, have mapped out a manual on how to operate an evacuation center, such as what kind of arrangements for daily life should be made there. While 94.7 percent of ordinance-designated cities have drawn up their own manuals, only 21 percent of towns and villages have done so.
After the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, hygiene problems in such places as restroom facilities and supply shortages cropped up at many shelters. The Cabinet Office, which has held meetings to improve the living environment at evacuation centers since October last year, compiled a report in March asking local governments to create manuals, set up guidelines to operate evacuation centers and explain how they plan to cope with issues that may occur at the shelters.
