Land of the Rising Water: March 2013

Friday, March 29, 2013

“We have to break the old habit of what we traditionally call “okami makase” (relying on the ruler or government.) Individuals as well as companies must make preparations on their own. Self-action is of prime importance.” Long-term, he says, “The national government needs to decentralize the mega-capital and create a scattered homeland where centers for politics, business, culture and others are separated. Now everything is dangerously concentrated in Tokyo.”

Ishibashi admits this an enormous task. “It’s very difficult for most people to move out of Tokyo. It’s hard to find a new home or job in Japan’s current economic and social circumstances,” he says. “Also, the Japanese have a mindset of “shouganai” (accepting one’s fate.) If a huge earthquake comes, well, it can’t be helped. For now, they think, it’s good to live in Tokyo.”

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Zombie Disaster Management

Last weekend I was reminded of a revolutionary idea to interest citizens in disaster management, namely zombies.

Thinking about disaster management is not very popular. There is an element of death, even if it is to be prevented, and most people are averse to think about this topic. Zombies, however unrealistic, have increased in popularity in the recent decades. Zombies in popular culture include books such as the Zombie Survival Guide, survival horror movies (Night of the Living Dead, From Dusk till Dawn, 28 Days Later) or more comedic movies (Shaun of the Dead, Zombieland, Fido), the Walking Dead comic book and tv series, and games (Resident Evil, Plants vs. Zombies). It is so popular that courses are taught on the subject.

It is not altogether strange then that the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention made a website where people could find information to prevent their house from a zombie attack. Being a governmental institution, there are no recommendations for weaponry or other types of assault, rather it sticks to prevention and survival. The idea is that if you are protected against a zombie attack, however hypothetical, you are also protected against many other real disasters. The effectiveness of this campaign was to be surveyed, but no results have been released so far. The government of Canada has a similar campaign. If the standard Zombie Survival Sheets were to be adapted somewhat from personal protection to home protection, they could aid in this idea.

For Western culture, the zombie approach could be an appealing method to generate interest in disaster management for individuals in a more playful manner. However, it is not very serious and may leave people shocked in case a disaster does really happen. In Japan, such an approach is not possible. Not only are disasters horrifyingly real, the idea of returning dead has a different cultural meaning. Lost family members are honored at home and during the bon festival. Since the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, many people in the Tohoku area grieve over the rumor of ghost sightings of their lost family members, a colleague explained to me. In an area where disasters leave palpable traces of loss, other methods to interest people in disaster management must be found.

Saturday, March 9, 2013

Aging Societies and Life Expectancy

It is clear that most, if not all developed countries are suffering from poorly managed aging societies, Japan in particular, and therefore it is increasingly necessary to challenge the notion of 'aging'. What makes a person elderly? Although this notion differs per culture, it also differs throughout time.

It is interesting to see the perspective of English author Virginia Woolf, born in 1882, who wrote in ‘A Writer’s Diary’ at the age of 37 to her future self: “50 is elderly, though I anticipate her protest and agree that it is not old”. As people’s life expectancy has been raised in the last 130 years in many developed countries, so have the notions of what is considered ‘elderly’. As the figure below shows, the average life expectancy in the Netherlands in 1850 was only half of what it is today. The statistic bureaus of many Western countries use the age of retirement as a boundary condition for ‘elderly’. However, in recent years the retirement age of many of these countries is increasing or about to increase, along with aging populations. What may be the retirement age this year, may not be the retirement age next year, thus causing a shift in the amount of population that might be included in this group. Furthermore, what is elderly or even what the retirement age is differs per country and per culture and may be incomparable, especially between developing and developed countries.

Life expectancy in the Netherlands in selected time periods, based on the publication Population Issues in the Netherlands (2000).

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Earthquake Analysis

Below the results of analysis of all earthquakes in Japan in the period 18 November 2011 to March 1st 2013. Magnitudes (left column) were compared to shindou (shaking intensity - top row) using data from the JMA. This proves most lower magnitude earthquakes have lower shaking intensities, but high magnitude (6.0-6.9) earthquakes can also generate shindou 1 earthquakes. It also shows earthquakes with the high shindou of 5- can be generated by earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 4 to 7. Less than 50% of all earthquakes of Magnitude 6 caused a shindou of 5- or 5+, and earthquakes with shindou 7 even failied to produce shindou 5+.

Mag.	6-	5+	5-	4	3	2	1
2	0	0	0	0	11	98	674
3	0	0	0	4	56	462	1278
4	0	0	3	33	191	376	271
5	0	5	20	51	30	31	26
6	0	7	3	4	5	1	3
7	0	0	2	1	1	0	0

Please note some data gaps have occurred and this does not capture all earthquakes up to shindou 3. In this period, there were no earthquakes with a magnitude higher than 7 or a shindou higher than 5+. The results are also visualized in the image below:

From these results the average shindou per magnitude was calculated. Since there is both a 5- and 5+ shindou, these values were both treated as if the value was 5.

Average shindou	Magnitude
1.15	2
1.33	3
1.99	4
3.11	5
3.74	6
4.25	7

Time for percentages! First the absolute number of earthquakes are listed again, with totals per magnitude and shindou. Next are the percentages relative to the total number of earthquakes. This is followed by the percentages relative to the shindou level and then relative to the magnitude. I hope this gives some perspective on the average earthquake in Japan, which has magnitude 3-3.9 and shindou 1. Please note that the shindou and magnitude are the highest values measured, and are not felt all across the country but are rather localized.

Absolute
Magnitude	5+	5-	4	3	2	1	Total
2	0	0	0	11	98	674	783
3	0	0	4	56	462	1278	1800
4	0	3	33	191	376	271	874
5	5	20	51	30	31	26	163
6	7	3	4	5	1	3	23
7	0	2	1	1	0	0	4
Total	12	28	93	294	968	2252	3647

Percentage of total
Magnitude	5+	5-	4	3	2	1	Total
2	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.30	2.69	18.48	21.47
3	0.00	0.00	0.11	1.54	12.67	35.04	49.36
4	0.00	0.08	0.90	5.24	10.31	7.43	23.96
5	0.14	0.55	1.40	0.82	0.85	0.71	4.47
6	0.19	0.08	0.11	0.14	0.03	0.08	0.63
7	0.00	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.11
Total	0.33	0.77	2.55	8.06	26.54	61.75	100.00
3647

Percentage per shindou
Magnitude	5+	5-	4	3	2	1
2	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.74	10.12	29.93
3	0.00	0.00	4.30	19.05	47.73	56.75
4	0.00	10.71	35.48	64.97	38.84	12.03
5	41.67	71.43	54.84	10.20	3.20	1.15
6	58.33	10.71	4.30	1.70	0.10	0.13
7	0.00	7.14	1.08	0.34	0.00	0.00
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

Percentage per magnitude
Magnitude	5+	5-	4	3	2	1	Total
2	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.40	12.52	86.08	100
3	0.00	0.00	0.22	3.11	25.67	71.00	100
4	0.00	0.34	3.78	21.85	43.02	31.01	100
5	3.07	12.27	31.29	18.40	19.02	15.95	100
6	30.43	13.04	17.39	21.74	4.35	13.04	100
7	0.00	50.00	25.00	25.00	0.00	0.00	100